U.S. Stock Futures Lower Ahead of Economic Data
U.S. stock futures were trading lower on Sunday evening as investors looked ahead to fresh economic data set for release later in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all closed out the previous week with significant losses.
The upcoming week will be closely monitored for January’s CPI and PPI index, retail sales, industrial production, business inventories and permits, housing starts, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, import and export prices, and speeches from Logan, Bowman, Williams, Harker, Bullard and Mester. Major companies such as Coca-Cola Co, Cisco Systems Inc, Paramount Group Inc, and Deere & Company are also set to report results.
On the bond markets, United States 10-Year rates were at 5-week highs of 3.742%. The Dow remained unchanged while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 1.5% respectively.
as investors are concerned about the upcoming economic data and the losses that the major benchmark averages experienced in the previous week.
Investors Await U.S. Inflation Data
Investors will be closely monitoring Tuesday's U.S. inflation data to gain insight into the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path. This week, the U.K. is set to release a variety of economic data, Japan’s government is set to nominate a new central bank governor, and the Eurozone will release updated quarterly economic forecasts. Investors will be looking for signs that inflation is continuing to moderate after recent strong jobs data saw markets recalibrate expectations for how high the Fed may need to raise rates this year. Data for the prior two months was also revised up, according to the Labor Department's annual revisions of CPI data.
Earnings season is winding down, with more than half of the firms listed on the S&P 500 having reported earnings. 69% of these companies have beat profit estimates for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data. Notable earnings in the week ahead include Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO).
The Nasdaq posted its first weekly fall for this year last week, down 2.41%, while the S&P 500 ended the week lower 1.11% and the Dow Jones lost 0.17%. This was likely due to hawkish commentary from Fed officials and earnings reports.
Overall, the sentiment of this paragraph is positive. Investors are looking forward to the release of economic data and earnings reports, and the majority of companies have beat profit estimates. Although the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all ended the week lower, this was likely due to hawkish commentary from Fed officials and earnings reports.
Insider Trading Recap: B. Riley Chief Picks Up Over $6 Million in Stock Post Short Report
This week's Pro Recap of some of the biggest insider trading headlines included the CEO of B. Riley Financial buying approximately $6 million worth of stock following a short seller report, ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott selling $25 million in shares, and two more big insider buys.
The short seller report on B. Riley Financial accused the company of leveraging to purchase toxic assets during a financial mania and criticized them for not reducing losses on their "failing" investments and for providing more capital to distressed clients. Wolfpack Research also warned that the biggest risk for B. Riley is that a large portion of its loan portfolio is likely to file for bankruptcy. B. Riley's client Bed Bath & Beyond is trying to avoid bankruptcy with its recent equity offering.
ServiceNow shares fell over 3% on Monday after CEO Bill McDermott sold 53,883 shares, or approximately $25M worth, at $455.03-$460.98. Last month the company reported EPS of $2.28, coming in better than the consensus of $2.02. Revenue met expectations at $1.94 billion. It was also downgraded by Truist Securities in January to Hold from Buy with a price target of $420.00 (from $525.00).
Corteva (NYSE: CNC) and CTVA (NASDAQ: CTVA) also saw big insider buys this week. Corteva's CEO Jim Collins bought $1.5 million worth of stock at $17.25 per share, while CTVA's CEO bought $1.2 million worth of stock at $9.25 per share.
Overall, this week's insider trading news was mostly negative with B. Riley Financial and ServiceNow seeing a drop in stock prices. However, the two other big insider buys of Corteva and CTVA were a positive sign for investors.
Asian Markets Slide as Inflation Data Awaited
The Asian markets slid on Monday as investors prepared for the upcoming U.S. inflation data which could have a major impact on global interest rates. A U.S. air force shot down an airborne object near the Canadian border, adding an air of geopolitical mystery. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.7%, while Japan's Nikkei fell 1.0% and South Korea 0.7%. Chinese blue chips nudged up 0.6%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures were down 0.1%, while FTSE futures stayed flat. S&P 500 futures were off 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures eased 0.5%. The U.S. consumer prices and retail sales data this week will be closely watched, with median forecasts for headline and core consumer prices to rise 0.4% for the month, with sales rebounding by 1.6%. Bruce Kasman, head of economic analysis at JPMorgan, expects core CPI to rise 0.5% and sales to jump 2.2%.
The sentiment of this paragraph is negative, as the Asian markets are sliding and investors are preparing for the potential impact of the U.S. inflation data on global interest rates. The mystery of the U.S. air force shooting down an airborne object near the Canadian border adds to the negative sentiment. The forecasts for the U.S. consumer prices and retail sales data this week are not overly optimistic, with Bruce Kasman expecting core CPI to rise 0.5% and sales to jump 2.2%.
Russia to Cut Oil Production Despite G7 Price Cap
In response to the Group of Seven's crude price cap, Russia has announced that it will be cutting its oil production by 5%, or 500,000 barrels per day, from March. Deputy Prime Minister and de facto energy minister Alexander Novak stated that the price cap mechanism for selling Russian oil and oil products interferes with market relations, and that it continues the destructive energy policy of the countries of the collective west. Novak also clarified that OPEC+ has nothing to do with the cuts planned by Russia.
The United States had criticized Saudi Arabia last year when OPEC+ announced a 2-million-bpd cut in October, as it was seen as an attempt to bolster Russia’s war against Ukraine. This was followed by a 9% drop in crude prices between November and January due to Chinese demand for oil tanking from COVID-19 restrictions and fears of a global recession.
In addition to the production cut, Reuters reported that the Kremlin plans to set a fixed $20 per barrel differential for its Urals crude to dated contracts of global benchmark Brent for “tax purposes”. This news is indicative of a negative sentiment, as Russia is taking steps to protect its energy industry despite the G7's price cap.
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